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This short paper sets up the assumptions portion of your research that will be used in paper 3. The focus is on “all else constant.”
The two states you will consider for both this assignment and paper 3 are Pennsylvania and Ohio.
This assignment involves two elements.
Discuss in general the things that might affect infection rates in addition to state restrictive/non-restrictive policies among states. Outside sources with citation needed.
Consider your Element 1 discussion. Describe the steps you might take to satisfy the “all else constant” requirements of your paper 3 analysis for Pennsylvania and Ohio. These include things that might be similar in the two states and therefore are constant. These need to be listed with reference to the sources you use. In addition, list factors that you have to ASSUME are constant, that you will need caveats for in your paper 3 analysis.
Please delineate your sections with subheadings. As usual, proper citation methodology is mandatory.
(Element 1 paper)
Monroe Neal
Profess David Raboy ECO 201
Sep. 29th, 2022
Policy/Infections Paper 1
1. The belief of saving lives first can overall save our livelihoods. In the article written in 2020 on how to reopen the economy, it quotes “without action more will die, more
evictions, loss of health insurance, more hospitals overburdened, and jobs loss.” (Werner, R., & Grande, D.) In all the madness of the COVID-19 outbreak we had the U.S. leading in cases back in 2020 with multiple businesses shutting down and letting workers go. Millions filing for unemployment benefits, countless sporting arenas and entertainment venues closing, down to the entertainers cancelling tours and shows all around. This whole disease really has affected and slowed down our economy in these past few years, so you might be able to see why getting it under control is not only the best for humanity, but the best restart for the economy. Some folks like the policy director connected to The Economic Recovery Depends on Controlling the COVID-19 Pandemic, by Rachel Cleetus, believe a rollout on vaccines should do the job, others like David & Rachel W. think some of the tactics we have put in place with social distancing or even just the lockdowns have been proven effective as well.
2. It is said by students, Jason Furman (PIIE) and Wilson Powell III (Harvard Kentucky School), increasing inventory investment and increased service spending has led to one of the fastest GDP growths since 1984. Over the four quarters of 2021, real GDP grew 5.5 percent.
Some examples and data of evidence of the economic growth in result of the pandemic:
“In the fourth quarter of 2021, US real GDP was 1.4 percent below its pre-pandemic trend, as shown in figure 1. It is not necessarily the case, however, that real GDP was 1.4 percent lower than what it would have been absent the pandemic (a negative for GDP) and absent the fiscal and monetary policy response (a positive for GDP). The growth rate in the years prior to COVID-19 was boosted by continued increases in the age-adjusted employment rate as the economy’s cyclical position improved.” (Furman & Powell)
“The pre-pandemic trend assumes that growth would have continued at a 2.3 percent annual rate, while the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) last pre-COVID-19 forecast was for growth at a 2.0 percent annual rate in 2020 and 2021 (CBO’s actual pre-pandemic forecast envisioned the economy being above potential in 2021-Q4).” (Furman & Powell)
“The composition of demand has changed dramatically, as shown in figure 5 (Figure 3). The biggest shortfall continues to be in business investment, which is 6 percent short of its adjusted pre-pandemic trend. Consumer spending has fully recovered and is now 1.0 percent above its adjusted trend. Residential investment remains well above trend, while government purchases are slightly below their trend.” (Furman J. & Powell III, W.)
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Works Cited
Furman , J., Powell III, W., Blanchard, O., L’Huillier, J. P., Lorenzoni , G., & Dylan, K. (2022,
January 28). The US economy grew faster than expected in 2021, but the pandemic transformed its composition. PIIE. Retrieved September 29, 2022, from https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/us-economy-grew-faster- expected-2021-pandemic-transformed-its
